The Panic and the Rebound
Early 2026 gave the market a new word. After a February selloff in software stocks, investors started asking a blunt question: if AI can write the code, what is software worth? By April 10, RBC Capital Markets notes, the IGV software index was down about 27%. By mid-September it had climbed back to roughly flat for the year.
What Gartner Actually Predicts
Gartner’s July forecast is the sober version. Up to $234 billion of enterprise application spending is exposed to what it calls agentic arbitrage by 2030, about a fifth of enterprise SaaS. Agents finish work across systems, so fewer people need to log into each one. Gartner’s own summary: “less an apocalypse and more of a metamorphosis.”
Builders Are Already Moving
Retool surveyed 817 builders and found 35% have already replaced at least one SaaS tool with something custom, and 78% expect to build more this year. Sixty percent built something outside IT’s oversight in the past year. The appetite is real. So is the sprawl.
The Honest Math
RBC ran a build-versus-buy model across 14 companies and found do-it-yourself software rarely comes out meaningfully cheaper once maintenance, security and the quality gap are counted. We agree. Rebuilding your CRM to save on seats is a bad trade.
The exception in RBC’s own analysis is the interesting part. Building pays when the result is better than anything you can buy and it sets you apart.
Where Custom Wins
The workflow that is your actual edge
The glue between systems no vendor owns
The process five tools half-cover today
The spreadsheet your team keeps rebuilding
The hidden costs RBC lists (maintenance, security and quality) are exactly what a software factory exists to carry. So buy the commodity, build the advantage, and see it working before you commit.
